I really enjoyed reading Dr Andrew Sentance's article in The Times on his upbeat economic forecast for 2015, not least because he managed to insert references to Ian Dury's "Reason's To Be Cheerful" into the article! Andrew is a former Monetary Policy Committee member at The Bank of England and is Senior Economic Adviser at PwC. Here is a summary of Andrew's economic predictions for 2015:
1. Economic growth is forecast to be 2.5% in 2015. Andrew points out that this is consistent with his concept of the "New Normal" and suggests that only the US will do better among the G7 economies in the coming year.
2. Investment is forecast to grow by over 6% in 2015.
3. Inflation is low and set to fall further. Consumers may gain some much-needed economic relief in terms of prices.
For more economic wisdom try Dr Andrew Sentance's book "Rediscovering Growth"
4. Unemployment is expected to fall to 5.5% by the end of 2015.
5. Wages growth is picking up – expected to be 2.4% next year. When combined with low inflation, people can expect the first improvements in living standards since the financial crash.
6. Real household disposable income is forecast to rise by 2.3% in 2015, providing the consumer with some purchasing power for the first time in several years.
For HR professionals this offers some "Reasons to be Cheerful" after many years of having to tell people "It's not about the Money" …