Incomes Data Services latest pay settlement analysis shows that, compared with the summer months, settlements effective this autumn are more closely bunched between 3 and 4 per cent.

Significantly, the number of pay rises below 3 per cent has fallen away with inflation having run at 3.0 to 3.3 per cent since April. However, with inflation fairly stable around this level there is no significant increase in pay rises above 4 per cent, although there are a few deals at 5 per cent.

Focusing on the most up-to-date settlements, of the 47 deals recorded in the IDS analysis effective from September to December, over three-quarters (36) are worth between 3 and 4 per cent, including a large number (15) at exactly 3 per cent. Outside of this range, there are eight deals under 3 per cent and three deals worth more than 4 per cent. However, it should be borne in mind that few companies conduct pay reviews in the last few months of the year. The next key month is January, probably the most important month in the pay calendar for the private sector.